Open source Learning tools for the virtual classroom. .

Open source learning tools for the virtual classroom ..

Click here for the link  ....

george

Covid Crossword

Covid Crossword - clues, medium toughness

 

Across

1. effective strategy used by Kerala government to contain the virus spread (5,3,5)

2. people coming from abroad to India have to compulsorily undergo this (10)

3. country with second largest deaths (5)

4. Social _______, a strategy to contain the virus spread (10)

5  PPE or personal ____ equipment is vital for healthcare professionals (10)

6. use of this is advised for personal hygiene (10)

7. hand ___, recommended for personal hygiene (7)

8. distance from the nearest person while in a queue (3,5)

Down

1. largest affected country in the world (6,6)

2. city where virus was first observed (5)

3. building this helps fight Corona virus (8)

4. SARS, MERS and this virus are commonly classified as this type of virus (6)

5. country with second largest infection (5)

6. do this to the curve, not to overwhelm the existing medical infrastructure (10)

7. this is carried out in nations to prevent the virus spread (8)

© 2020 Easaw

ABC analysis of Covid global deaths - identifying the worst affected countries..

Application of ABC analysis in the Covid crisis scenario..

An interesting application of ABC analysis in Covid deaths .. What started in 1896 as 80-20 rule by French economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923)  is now a great learning and analysis tool used by managements specialists and economists globally to identify the true impact of global natural events..

Considering the great grief and loss of life, as an educator and management professional, one would be interested in knowing which are the countries worst affected by the Corona virus crisis.

Classifying the 200 nCovid 19 infected countries of the world as A, B and C class on the basis of their death percentages, as on 12 April '20 helps understand the import of the situation better.

Click here for the in depth analysis 

Analysis In brief : 

US, Italy, Spain and France are the worst Covid affected nations and the A class countries (average per capita GDP of $42,278/-) in this analysis who need urgent global attention and mediation, UK, Iran, Belgium, China, Germsny, Netherlands, Brazil  Turkey and Switzerland form the B class of countries (average per capita GDP of $34,175/-) needs concerted efforts to help contain and prevent it's further spread. 

The rest of the world comprise the C class of nations (average per capita GDP of $3851/-) who have to be ever vigilant and resort to isolation strategies in their respective countries over the next three months..

                 Deaths %      Country %

A class        65                   2

B class         27                4.5

C class         8                 93.5

Covid global deaths, 12 April '20.

This analysis should help 

1. Global medical experts and United Nations to identify the critical countries and focus their relief efforts 

2. Plan relief efforts keeping the A and B class countries in mind to improve effectiveness of relief

3. What can be further done in the worst affected countries to limit the spread and reduce the impact of the deaths.

The drawbacks of this analysis 

1. It is a snapshot of a point in time, 12 April, 2020. The situation is very dynamic and can change drastically over the next few weeks. 

2. Info from China is not globally accepted as true and complete.

3. ABC analysis is not a true quantitative descriptor of a phenomenon but is only used as a macro level estimator for better understanding of policymakers. 

Why was lockdown recommended  ?

If all cases come jointly to a hospital  it is possible that the healthcare system can get overwhelmed leading to poor delivery and ensuring death. 

Since the vaccine is not yet ready,  the only alternative available with the healthcare system of a country is to delay the onset of cases or to flatten the infection rate by secondary and tertiary measures like social distancing,  quarantine, wearing of personal protective equipment  (PPE) etc.

A flat infection curve ensures that the country's healthcare system capacity is properly utilised to provide care for the needy and is not strained. The lockdown declared in the country since March 14  has helped to flatten the infection curve and reduce the casualties. 

George 

Analysis by : Prof. George Easaw, Alliance University,  Bangalore, India.

Data source : www.worldometers.info
www.worldbank.org

Data as on 12 April, 2020.

Covid infection and recovery, US and Kerala comparison..

US has a Covid 19 infection recovery rate of 18000 /337000 = 5.3 % and a Covid fatality rate of 2.8% (0.028) while Kerala has showed an amazing recovery rate of 17% and a fatality rate of 0.6% (0.006). 

The Covid fatality rate in US is 4.5x that in Kerala, while the infection recovery rate in Kerala is 3.5x of US (17%  in Kerala compared to 5.3% in US), which speaks volumes of the excellent medical care provided to Covid patients in Kerala, contrary to US claims of the same. 

US is 9.3x the population of Kerala, though it is 245x the area of Kerala.

There is 15.8x times (1580%) more chance of living and not dying of Covid 19 if you are in Kerala than if you were living in US during this global crisis time..

Numbers don't lie, though people and nations will, often .. 👍👍🙏👍

Containing Covid ..

WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION PROTOCOL & PROCEDURE OF LOCKDOWN PERIODS FOR CONTROLLING  ON MOST DANGEROUS VIRUS

• STEP 1 - 1 DAY.
• STEP 2 - 21 DAYS, AFTER 5 DAYS.
• STEP 3 - 28 DAYS, AFTER 5 DAYS.
• STEP 4 - 15 DAYS.

The Indian government is going according to the what WHO wants the government to do. The banging on plates, lighting candles are just symbolic, I believe, to ensure mass participation.

The need to ensure public participation is all the more necessary presently. With low literacy levels, most of our population, can be motivated to the acceptance of such action only by such gimmicks. 

The same way, our Indian government is carrying out the planned lockdown as follows

                 

MAR 22 - 1 DAY (TRIAL LOCKDOWN)

(A)   MAR 24 - APR 14 - 21 DAYS (FIRST LOCKDOWN)

APRIL 15 - APRIL 19 - RELAX FROM LOCKDOWN.

(B)   APR 20 - MAY  18 - 28 DAYS (SECOND LOCKDOWN)

In case, Covid19 patient ratio is zero, withdraw the LOCKDOWN.

Otherwise, have small beak or 5 days, the people can travel and ensue that basic amenities are accessible and made available. 

May 19 - May  24 - Relax from LOCKDOWN. 

This will enable people to go around for basic amenities and pack their houses with food and other things for the next spell of lockdown.

(C)   May 25 - June 10 - 15 days (FINAL LOCKDOWN).

The world is positive about this pandemic that it can be contained. The fact of the matter is that as of 5th April, when this text is bring written, India is still in the first phase of lockdown. We still have three more phases to ensure the complete elimination of this virus.

The only prayer to the authorities is not to let any unscientific evidence to interfere with the process. It also is very much needed for the political leadership to ask the people of the country to refrain from negative thinking and engage in discussions about the pandemic in positive ways. Loss of lives is inevitable. How we overcome it is the issue.

India has to show the rest of the world how our people can be together in times of crisis and trouble.

George.

Indian Agriculture Supply Chains, stressed ?

Last night in cyberspace, we had a 60 minutes case discussion using a web collaboration tool, MS TEAMS. The case discussion  in the Supply Chain Management class of MBA semester 2 did not happen inside the classroom. It was a country-wide classroom case discussion mediated by high-tech. The participants spanned across the country from Meghalaya to Maharashtra and Punjab to Kerala.

The participants were my students spread across India from Meghalaya to Mumbai, Delhi to Trivandrum and were discussing on the Agricultural supply chain challenges across the country and beyond,  during these Covid times.. 

The discussions started on a sober note at 8 pm. We had a bit of noise and disturbance in between as about 23 students attending the discussion needed to raise their opinions, all at the same time. The main purpose of the discussion was to sensitize the student community on the challenges faced by the agricultural supply chains across the country during these Covid times ..

While some students were of the view that the all important agri supply chains in the country were operating without any stresses, others were of the view that there were challenges. The suppliers were actually depleting their safety stocks to supply to organized retail chains like Reliance Fresh (Ambani), Star bazar (Tatas) and More supermarkets (Birlas) and others, the effect of which they felt, will be  experienced after 6 months.

Only these organized retail stores, spread across the country with a strong supply chain, are open these days helping the common man. Mom and pop corner stores, which account for 90% of the retail landscape, frequently run out of stock as replenishments are not reliable because of the transportation lock down. Organized retail accounts for just 10% of India's total retail trade of $60 billion.

In Andhra, the govt has ensured that there are shops selling provisions and vegetables every 2 km distance across the state. Reliance Fresh arranges home delivery in some parts of Andhra too. Here in Bangalore we stand outside in queue for 50 minutes to enter inside ghe store and spend another 40 minutes inside before checking out.

As my student from Meghalaya told, in North East which has not yet seen a Corona death, the situation is more relaxed, though they are taking precautions, practicing social distancing and self quarantine, avoiding social functions.

Also in remote Jharkhand or Assam, the situation is same, tense yet relaxed. In Assam, except for rice, dal and aloo, other estables are really difficult to procure and stock. Vehicles were not playing on roads making stock replenishment in stores difficult. Police are trying their level best to avoid prople crowding at public places, malls, supermarkets etc ..

While the demand for household items, provisions, vegetables, fruits, cleaning materials etc. was not varying much, the supply chain was found to be stressed not because of dearth of items but for lack of reliable transportation modes across the country. The inactivity happening in the farming fields and orchards will reflect in reduced supplies to the market in six months time to a year, which could bring price increases on reduced supply. The anti-social activity of hoarding has been unheard of so far.

Really, the Covid virus pandemic is a great case study in effective leadership.  Kerala public never thought the Kerala CM, Pinarayi Vijayan would emerge as a good leader even surpassing Modi in arranging fast, effective responses, motivating lakhs of volunteers across the state irrespective of party affiliations to join in nation building. .. 👍👍👍 

George 

Covid data, 2 april '20.

Its interesting to see the recovery patterns in China and rest of the world, very unnatural .. 

Is China hiding or distorting facts ?? 😟😟

Why US establishment presently finds the going tough ..

Some authentic estimates predict upto 2,40,000 Americans could perish this Corona season just in US. I have no reason to suspect the  health and hygienic standards of that developed country. I only wish they are the unknown,  unassuming  and unsophisticated ordinary American who cannot afford a visit to the hospital or a private doc, but why ?

Why did US have to suffer this great ignominy, disgrace, penury and destitution this time ? How many countries and it's people do really feel sorry for US this time ? When US went around the world policing people and countries in Asia and the middle east, on what is righteous,  virtuous and principled in this modern world in the American eyes,  little did they think that a 120 nanometer pathogen could in return cause so much destruction and grief in the country.

US past is catching up with it's ignoble past now. Earlier with just threats of terrorist attacks and death, US had the audacity, boldness and dare to attack Afghanistan and Iraq, destabilizing the whole region, disturbing peace and harmony, in the process killing thousands of innocent people and holding the world to ransom. 

Against a 120 nanometer virus, nCovid 19, the might of the US military establishment has come crumbling down, crashing. It's pride is deeply hurt, requesting and in some cases even demanding, other nations for medicines and solace.

May God give its haughty rulers, policy planners and the masses enough humility to understand reality and firstly make peace with the virus and then with the rest of the world.

All the F35s, the B52s  the USS Enterprise and other warships and its military might is a big zero in front of this virus, a big waste at this moment. US is terribly humbled before this 120 nanometer virus ..

Click here for an interesting NYT piece ..

Is it also reflective of the sub-standard  and dumb political and economic leadership of the country which is more interested in getting the businesses in US up and running unmindful of the health of the people, than in controlling a global pandemic running riot with people's lives in that great country  !!

George