ABC analysis of Covid global deaths - identifying the worst affected countries..

Application of ABC analysis in the Covid crisis scenario..

An interesting application of ABC analysis in Covid deaths .. What started in 1896 as 80-20 rule by French economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923)  is now a great learning and analysis tool used by managements specialists and economists globally to identify the true impact of global natural events..

Considering the great grief and loss of life, as an educator and management professional, one would be interested in knowing which are the countries worst affected by the Corona virus crisis.

Classifying the 200 nCovid 19 infected countries of the world as A, B and C class on the basis of their death percentages, as on 12 April '20 helps understand the import of the situation better.

Click here for the in depth analysis 

Analysis In brief : 

US, Italy, Spain and France are the worst Covid affected nations and the A class countries (average per capita GDP of $42,278/-) in this analysis who need urgent global attention and mediation, UK, Iran, Belgium, China, Germsny, Netherlands, Brazil  Turkey and Switzerland form the B class of countries (average per capita GDP of $34,175/-) needs concerted efforts to help contain and prevent it's further spread. 

The rest of the world comprise the C class of nations (average per capita GDP of $3851/-) who have to be ever vigilant and resort to isolation strategies in their respective countries over the next three months..

                 Deaths %      Country %

A class        65                   2

B class         27                4.5

C class         8                 93.5

Covid global deaths, 12 April '20.

This analysis should help 

1. Global medical experts and United Nations to identify the critical countries and focus their relief efforts 

2. Plan relief efforts keeping the A and B class countries in mind to improve effectiveness of relief

3. What can be further done in the worst affected countries to limit the spread and reduce the impact of the deaths.

The drawbacks of this analysis 

1. It is a snapshot of a point in time, 12 April, 2020. The situation is very dynamic and can change drastically over the next few weeks. 

2. Info from China is not globally accepted as true and complete.

3. ABC analysis is not a true quantitative descriptor of a phenomenon but is only used as a macro level estimator for better understanding of policymakers. 

Why was lockdown recommended  ?

If all cases come jointly to a hospital  it is possible that the healthcare system can get overwhelmed leading to poor delivery and ensuring death. 

Since the vaccine is not yet ready,  the only alternative available with the healthcare system of a country is to delay the onset of cases or to flatten the infection rate by secondary and tertiary measures like social distancing,  quarantine, wearing of personal protective equipment  (PPE) etc.

A flat infection curve ensures that the country's healthcare system capacity is properly utilised to provide care for the needy and is not strained. The lockdown declared in the country since March 14  has helped to flatten the infection curve and reduce the casualties. 

George 

Analysis by : Prof. George Easaw, Alliance University,  Bangalore, India.

Data source : www.worldometers.info
www.worldbank.org

Data as on 12 April, 2020.