Thursday, August 20, 2020

Future of the aircaft industry .. ..

Of the around 24,000 commercial aircrafts of global airlines as of end '19, approx. 16,400 aircrafts are parked now (66%) waiting for the Covid pandemic to end .. 

Pictured here is the Victor Bill parking area, Calif., US. Source : CNBC

One of the most distressing aspect of global travel and trade due to the Covid pandemic is the fact that the global airline industry is passing through a very trying moment in it's history of 101 years.

Global international commercial passenger flight is going to be 101 yeas old on the 25th of August. This was the day 101 yeas back that the first international flight flew from London to Paris with passengers. 

Why is parking planes very expensive ?

It costs in millions of dollars for airlines around the world to buy planes. The bare minimum or a Boeing 737 or Airbus 320, the most popular medium haul and meium capacity (around 170-190) aircrafts of the world could be anywhere around $100 - 110 million, with all other long haul and large capacity planes costing more.

With Airbus and Boeing controlling 91% of the global airline fleet, Airbus having 11,535 planes in it's running fleet and Boeing having more than 10,000 planes in it's surviving fleet now, it is a major crisis or airlines to park these planes at the right location at the right time and with proper maintenance so that once the pandemic is over, resumption of aircraft services occurs smoothly. The present Covid pandemic has resulted in 16,400 of the 24,00 planes with airlines around the world being grounded, around 66%.

What are the main points to be considered while parking a plane ?
1. how to park the plane
2. where to park the plane
3. how long to park the plane
4. how much maintenance will be needed for the parked plane
5. how to prepare the plane when it comes out of parking to resume flights and service customers 

Operationally running the engine every three four days, (or once in a week) for proper recycling of fluids and moving tyres to ensure the load is evenly distributed along the circumference by moving the plane a few feet every three or our days are some of the basic maintenance tips undertaking by airlines on parked aircrafts around the world.

Another aspect of parking is to decide whether the parking is short term or long term. Like we move food to the freezer if we plan to preserve food for long time, in the case of aircrafts for long term parking, the airplanes are taken to the deserts with dry climate that helps prevent corrosion.


With huge orders backlog for the aircraft manufacturers, what was supposedly excellent future has suddenly tuned sour and uncertain due to Covid. The aircraft manuafctuers are facing a bleak future with smaller ones or more energy eficient lighter airplanes like Boeing 787.

The about 6000 aircrafts of age 15 years and older and 4000 of age 20 years or older, the wide bodied, inefficient, older planes are bound to never come out of these parking lots in the future. Major decisions for airlines would be to decide what aircrafts to keep around, to reduce the running costs of the airlines in the long run.

It is too ealy to decide the time span in which the aircrats will start flying again, some of the older less efficient ones may not fly again. 

Click here for an interesting 45 min CNA documentary on this ..

Questions to ponder..

1. Do low cost airlines have a strong future in the coming yeas ?
2. Will large and inefficient or smaller efficient passenger planes be the norm of the future ?
3. How can airlines think of phasing out older large aircraft without much pain or financial loss to the airlines ?
4. Will the Covid pandemic be a reminder for airlines around the world to go for the leasing model than the ownership model ?

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