Monday, January 24, 2022

Gartner hype cycle, why and how is it helpful ?

Any extra or additional information and detail about a technology or product or process is generally called hype. Gartner has taken on itself to filter through almost 1700 technologies globally and prepere a report that show how and when these technologies can benefit humanity. 

The Gartner hype cycle is a graphical
presentation developed, used and branded by the American research, advisory and information technology firm Gartner to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies.
Wikipedia

Do all technologies go through the hype cycle? Not all technology trends follow the entire maturity lifecycle. Some fail to live up to their hype, disappearing from the hype cycle altogether. This behavior suggests that the real value was evaluated early during their maturity lifecycle and the promised rewards were deemed unrealistic or unfeasible

 How does the hype cycle help you ?

If you are tracking the almost 1700 technologies that Gartner hype cycle tracks every year, you will mostly find the techhnology in the hype cycle. If anyone is interested in following uop with a technology and would like to know in how many years it can get into mainstream, to be able to influence people and their lives.

 The different phases of the Gartner cycle are as given here.

No. Phase Description
1 Technology Trigger A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.
2 Peak of Inflated Expectations Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; most don't.
3 Trough of Disillusionment Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investment continues only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
4 Slope of Enlightenment More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.
5 Plateau of Productivity Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. If the technology has more than a niche market then it will continue to grow.

According to Gartner, their predictions of the technologies that could materialise and generate profits in the coming years has been very good. Because of their acceptability this chart is very popular with the technology world. The different stages of the hype chart and what that means for the technology world, how they can decipher is given in the figure here. 

The hype curve helps to identify and separate the hype from the actual commercial promise reducing the risk in taking technology related decisions.

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