Ideal patient arrival distribution during a health crisis ..

At the time of a pandemic  which curve of patient density distribution is ideal for hospitals and the country's healthcare system as a whole ?

Blue and red curves are the probability density curves of the normal continuous probability distribution. Red has low variance or spread unlike the blue curve which has high spread or variance. 

The blue curve has large std deviation and a lower peak (lower mode) and hence less strain on the medical system, as patients do not all come at one shot to the hospital as in the case of the red curve.

The patient arrivals in the blue curve are spread over larger time ensuring beds and other infrastructure are available and better used, helping cure more patients and less deaths. The peak happens after some time giving enough bandwidth for the system to get its acts together..

The red curve signifies greater stress on the existing healthcare system over a shorter period of time, resulting in deficiency of service and hence large casualities. This is what happened in New Yotk and baffled healthcare professionals and decision makers.

George